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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House on Friday amid recent signs that US President Donald Trump was warming to Kyiv’s cause. However, the event was eclipsed by the news a day earlier that Trump again planned to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks.
The now-canceled Trump-Putin session, which was to be hosted in Budapest by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the EU’s most pro-Russia leaders, put Ukraine’s European allies on high alert. As a result of the announcement, the US president was to be lobbied intensely by regional leaders, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Despite the large list of callers, they had just one key message to Trump. That is, the European region, by and large, backs Zelensky 100 percent and wants to avoid any repeat of February’s awful White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky, when the latter was shaken down not only by the former but also Vice President J.D. Vance.
Key European leaders have sought to turbocharge a European-led initiative to try to end the conflict
Andrew Hammond
Since that nadir, key European leaders have sought to turbocharge a European-led initiative to try to end the conflict. This has been led, primarily, by Macron and Starmer but has also involved multiple others including Rutte and Von der Leyen.
Most European leaders continue to have grave concerns about Putin’s good faith in any upcoming negotiations to try to resolve the Ukraine conflict.
They are also aware that he appears to be able to win concessions from Trump, as exemplified by their Alaska summit in August, when the Russian leader persuaded his US counterpart into a U-turn on the importance of a Moscow-Kyiv ceasefire.
Key European leaders such as Merz and Macron continue to push Trump toward the idea that a ceasefire is a key necessity. Trump, however, appears to want to stick to Putin’s view that this is not needed.
The Russian president’s opinion is, of course, entirely self-interested. It reflects little more than the fact that Moscow has been gaining ground in Ukraine for months, a trajectory that Putin believes will continue.
This point was also reinforced by Zelensky on Friday, as he congratulated Trump on his role in brokering a preliminary peace deal between Israel and Hamas. He argued that the current ceasefire in the Middle East will be key to making that agreement last through a confidence-building process.
A second area where there remains much uncertainty is over US sanctions on Russia. Trump said before the Alaska meeting that Moscow would be subject to more such economic measures unless the war ended by a deadline in August. But he appears to have backtracked on this too, at least in the immediate term.
Europe’s strategy with Zelensky is a concerted attempt to try to strengthen him as much as possible in any forthcoming bilateral or trilateral talks with Russia.
Europe’s strategy with Zelensky is to try to strengthen him as much as possible in any talks with Russia
Andrew Hammond
Firstly, Europe will continue to strengthen Ukraine’s immediate military position, including with more financial aid, as fighting continues.
A second focal point is planning for postwar security guarantees, from both Europe and the US. This is one of the areas where Trump has been warmer toward Kyiv in recent weeks.
While European allies are not expecting the US to commit to sending troops on the ground, they are seeking its help, probably including air support, logistics and intelligence capabilities. Starmer has said that the Ukraine endgame “is going to need a US backstop because I don’t think it would be a guarantee without it, I don’t think it would be a deterrent without it, so the two have to go together.”
The suggestion of a potential Putin-Trump meeting in Budapest was a further signal that, while the Ukraine conflict sometimes seems never-ending, the ground may now be shifting toward the beginning of a potentially difficult and protracted negotiated settlement. If this becomes more apparent in the coming weeks, the shift will have come with Trump’s disruptive diplomacy. For all its shortcomings, this is forcing Europe to adopt a clearer, more coordinated approach to ensure it has any chance of being a significant influence in this process.
The continent’s leaders know they must now step up to the plate, especially given their conviction that any outcome in Ukraine that is perceived as a big Russian victory may only embolden Putin and his allies across the world.
Yet, while Europe is still very hopeful of keeping the Trump team on board vis-a-vis Putin, it is also continuing to prepare for other, darker scenarios. This includes the possibility that, if the war continues into 2026 and beyond, the US president might lose patience with the process of seeking peace.
It is even still possible that America might at some point stop offering any support for Ukraine. This includes intelligence, which would leave critical gaps that only Europe and allies such as Canada, Japan and Australia could try to at least partially fill.
This scenario might arise if Trump ultimately blames Ukraine for any failure to agree a deal, which he appears to think must include Zelensky giving up land. But Kyiv may refuse to capitulate, not least because of the Ukrainian constitutional challenge regarding ceding territory.
Now is therefore the time for Europe to double down with a clear, multiyear grand strategy for now and what comes next. This includes considering the possibility of deepening Ukraine’s political integration into the EU, which may require a much faster pace for Kyiv’s accession talks.
- Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.